Bitwise CEO says Bitcoin’s 4-cycle will break – ‘2026 is open season’

The world of cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, has long been characterized by distinct four-year market cycles, often attributed to its quadrennial halving events. These cycles have historically guided investor expectations, leading to predictable patterns of accumulation, parabolic rallies, and subsequent corrections. However, a prominent voice from the institutional crypto space, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, has recently suggested that this long-standing paradigm is on the verge of breaking. According to Horsley, ‘2026 is open season,’ signaling a significant shift in how market participants should approach Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

The Foundations of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle

For years, the Bitcoin market has demonstrated a cyclical nature, with peaks and troughs broadly aligning with the blockchain’s halving events. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, occur approximately every four years. Historically, these events have preceded significant bull runs, leading to the widespread belief that supply shock drives price appreciation, followed by periods of consolidation or decline. This pattern has given rise to the “4-year cycle” theory, influencing trading strategies and long-term investment outlooks for many.

Chart analysis often shows Bitcoin’s price performance since a cycle low, illustrating a general correlation between different cycles, particularly the second and third. While the magnitude of gains has varied, the rhythmic progression of these cycles has been a defining characteristic of Bitcoin’s market behavior.

Bitwise CEO’s Bold Prediction: The Cycle Will Break

Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, a major player in the institutional crypto space, has put forth a compelling argument that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is nearing its end. Horsley posits that the very awareness and anticipation of these historical patterns by market participants could be the catalyst for their disruption. His view suggests a “second-order effect” where investors, expecting a historical dump in 2026, might pre-emptively sell off their holdings in 2025. This early selling could turn 2025, traditionally a “green” post-halving year, into a “red” one, thereby breaking the established cycle. Consequently, Horsley believes this would leave 2026 as “open season,” implying a market no longer bound by past rhythms.

This sentiment has been echoed by other industry figures, including FundStrat CIO Tom Lee, who has also expressed agreement that factors are shifting away from the rigid 4-year cycle for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

New Market Dynamics: ETFs and Institutional Influx

A key factor contributing to this potential shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics is the increasing maturation of the cryptocurrency sector and the entry of new, significant players. The introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the growing interest from institutional treasury buyers represent a fundamental change in how capital flows into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Unlike earlier cycles dominated by retail investors, the current landscape features large-scale institutional participation, which often operates with different investment horizons and strategies.

The influx of institutional capital via vehicles like ETFs introduces a different psychological element to the market. These entities may not be as susceptible to the same speculative retail behavior that fueled previous cycles. Their long-term investment mandates and regulatory considerations could lead to more stable accumulation patterns rather than the sharp, parabolic rises and crashes observed historically.

Beyond Halving: The Influence of Global Liquidity

While halving events have long been seen as the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s cycles, some analysts are now suggesting that broader macroeconomic factors, particularly global liquidity growth and the U.S. business cycle, might exert a more significant influence. This perspective argues that Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly intertwined with the overall availability of capital in the global financial system, rather than solely relying on the supply-side shock of a halving.

Indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, which historically highlighted market tops in past cycles, have not yet signaled a similar peak in the current period, despite significant price appreciation. This divergence suggests that traditional cycle indicators may be losing their predictive power, further supporting the argument that the market is evolving beyond its historical patterns. If Bitcoin’s movements are indeed more closely tied to liquidity growth than to halving seasons, then the anticipated “open season” of 2026 could be shaped more by global economic conditions than by its own programmed supply reductions.

Implications for 2026 and Beyond

If the traditional 4-year cycle is indeed breaking, as Bitwise CEO suggests, the implications for 2026 and subsequent years are significant. An “open season” implies a market that is less predictable and potentially more influenced by a wider array of factors, including institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macro-economic trends. For investors, this could mean a departure from relying solely on halving-based models for price predictions.

Instead, market participants may need to broaden their analytical framework, considering factors such as global liquidity, interest rates, inflation, and the overall health of traditional financial markets. The end-of-year results and the performance throughout 2026 will be crucial in determining whether the long-held 4-year cycle theory for Bitcoin has indeed been disrupted, ushering in a new era of market dynamics.

Conclusion

The statement from Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, declaring “2026 is open season” for Bitcoin, marks a potential turning point in the cryptocurrency’s market narrative. The interplay of increasing institutional involvement, the psychological impact of anticipating historical patterns, and the growing influence of global liquidity on asset prices are all contributing to a potential departure from the well-established 4-year cycle. While the halving events remain a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin’s supply mechanics, the market’s evolving structure suggests that its price trajectory may no longer be solely defined by these events. As the crypto market matures, a more nuanced understanding of its drivers will likely be essential for navigating its future.